### abstract ###
the assumption that people possess a repertoire of strategies to solve the inference problems they face has been made repeatedly
the experimental findings of two previous studies on strategy selection are reexamined from a learning perspective  which argues that people learn to select strategies for making probabilistic inferences
this learning process is modeled with the strategy selection learning ssl theory  which assumes that people develop subjective expectancies for the strategies they have
they select strategies proportional to their expectancies  which are updated on the basis of experience
for the study by newell  weston  and shanks  CITATION  it can be shown that people did not anticipate the success of a strategy from the beginning of the experiment
instead  the behavior observed at the end of the experiment was the result of a learning process that can be described by the ssl theory
for the second study  by broder and schiffer  CITATION   the ssl theory is able to provide an explanation for why participants only slowly adapted to new environments in a dynamic inference situation
the reanalysis of the previous studies illustrates the importance of learning for probabilistic inferences
### introduction ###
how do people make probabilistic inferences  such as inferring the selling price of a car  the severity of an illness  or the likely winner of a tennis match
different strategies can be applied to make these inferences  such as integrating all available information to predict the criterion
in fact  many researchers have argued that people are equipped with a repertoire of different cognitive strategies for making judgments and decisions  CITATION
do people apply different strategies for solving probabilistic inferences
and if so  how do they select from their strategy repertoire
the cost-benefit approach to strategy selection argues that people trade off the strategies' anticipated costs and benefits
in contrast  i will argue that selection is achieved via learning-that is  people learn the success and failure of strategies through experience and select a strategy based on past success
i will describe a computational theory that specifies this learning process  CITATION  and will use it to explain people's probabilistic  inferences in two previous studies
